Jean Morrison said
 

So my questions are:

What do you think of this approach?and do you think it is realistic that I could come out at the back end say November 2021 in the black with a healthy profit if all targets are reached ie >3% CTR, 35% squeeze page conversion rate etc?

It sounds reasonable, but I have much less faith in the likeliness that you will see much ROI from the streaming portion of your plan. And it will divide your energy. That said, I like the fact that you are limiting the tracks and re-purposing them with the acoustic releases.

It is realistic, but you will need to spend a lot to grow a list that size, and statistically speaking, expecting a 10% conversion rate on sales would put you at the very high end of the range, so it's risky to expect it. You'll certainly want to hedge your bets by including additional promotions over the course of the year.

I would personally be selling the album right out of the gate, but doing so exclusively to your list.

I’m not in a position to go the membership route as I work with a producer that is more focused on getting the song right rather than achieving time deadlines. He’s not the most prompt fella.

Certainly this is a bit concerning as the more prolific you are, the better you will do. I find that on the indie level, being a perfectionist is a hindrance more than a benefit. 

There are also a couple other things I wanted to ask you regarding your budget formulas but will follow that up in the next question. Do you have a profit/loss budget template that you use for your clients or that you’ve shared here in the insiders circle where you input your own numbers?

  

I do have a spreadsheet I use with clients but am not comfortable sharing it at this time. Happy to answer questions about it though.

Jean Morrison said
John said:

Thank you. You've given me a lot to think about with this. Yeah, all income from streaming I see as a bonus but the reason for the interest in streaming and social media numbers is not for the money but rather a buildup to the album release, to potentially get attention from labels and to have something to talk about with my list throughout the year. Content ideas is my achilles heel. Isn't it also possible to advertise to people to get on your list who have streamed a certain percentage of your songs on the streaming platforms? My songs are generally classic alt-rock with some songs more singer-songwriter vibes so a band seems essential to me. 

In terms of getting attention from the labels goes, building up social and streaming stats does matter. Not as much as generating profit and a genuine following, but it's a reasonable argument for focusing on that stuff. As my focus is operating like a business without the labels, I don't care about things that don't impact the bottom line.

Content is important with my approach. It's all about building a bond with people, and it's very hard to do that with just music and no personal communication. I think if one is going to succeed with direct to fan, they need to get over this obstacle. But I do understand that it is difficult for many to get comfortable with. But keep in mind, it doesn't need to be a 1000 word blog post. It can be as simple as a short video of you talking to camera.

I only have 100 people on my list from running ads that I assume have gotten pretty cold since I haven't sent out anything in almost two years. If I were to sell the album right out the gate, would you suggest including it in my evergreen funnel or as a stand alone promotion? My only concern is that I'm not sure how this would impact the 'charting on billboard' goal. I know you can count pre-orders up to six months in advance as your first weeks sales. I mean that's not a huge deal breaker as it could mean more profit throughout, and by the end of, the year. It just seems almost backwards to me to release the album first, traditionally speaking. 

The reason I would release the album first is because if you don't, you will have a harder time monetizing the interest you create. People will go cold before you ask them to buy. It is backwards "traditionally" speaking. But most of what I do is. That is because what works when you have $500,000 to spend just doesn't work when you have $5000 to spend on promotion. 

Without me going into too much detail here are the reasons why I only wanted to release the album in October next year and also a little about my situation:

a) I don't have a band yet in San Diego and need the time to find members and be gig ready. (The acoustic album planned for recording this December will be done in South Africa with session guys there. But I live in San Diego from January to November most years)

b) I wanted to have a live album launch at a club with the band

c) Need some advance time for press.

d) I want sales from pre-order sales from as far back as possible to count towards first week sales to chart. Found out recently that I can go as far back as 6 months. 

e) Having a band will give me more content to speak about during the release.

The reason I expect a 10% conversion rate was because I was going to go 'the free cd offer' route for the album release taking pre-orders as far back as 6 months. Reason being to get sales numbers up to chart.

You can no longer chart with free for shipping and handling, as far as I know. 

With all this being said, I can see how having a 'free cd offer' for both my EP and my upcoming album can have a negative impact on my ROI at the end of the year. Also, if I can get subscribers for under a dollar who are converting at at least 5% and I am at least breaking even, ideally profiting, I am fortunate enough now to be in a position to keep that going for the next year. 

Just for info purposes, I currently have a 6 track EP (released in 2008) and a professional 10 track studio album (unreleased) and if all goes according to plan in December, I'll also have a professional full band 10 track acoustic album which will also be filmed. I'll have these three things to work with for 2021.

With all this info, how do you think I should approach this for a) to get the best ROI, b) to be able to chart and c) to release 4 songs on each 10 track album to the streaming platforms within the next 12 months? Given my current situation, if you don't think it's realistic to achieve all three of these goals within the next year, please let me know and if you could then propose an alternative approach, I'd really appreciate that.

Given what I said above about not being able to chart with free for shipping and handling, if your goal is to chart then I believe your best bet is to build a list using another album (the acoustic album for example), and optimize until you are breaking even or close. Build the list as large as possible and sell to your list with an incentivised offer, all within a short 2 - 4 week window. This is the best way to consistently chart. But you need to build the audience first and know your numbers.

I'd like to book a consulting session with you to go over a few things but I just wanted to first familiarize my current situation with you.

Thanks so much John

  

I think it's great that you have goals. They are all achievable, but they are also ambitious and it may not be as easy as you think to get there, simply because you are starting from nearly zero. My best advice is to realise that this is a long game, and if you stay the course of growing your audience and monetizing your relationship with your audience, you really can't fail.

Jean Morrison said
Hey John

Sorry I'm going to have to break this down further as you've lost me on many points.

The reason I would release the album first is because if you don’t, you will have a harder time monetizing the interest you create.   

Sorry Im not following, surely if I release a bunch of singles first, it would peak even more interest, suspense and willingness to buy the main course (the album) if they like the singles. Kinda like starters at a restuarant.

Yes, if the album is available. But in my experience you are overestimating the level of interest you will create as a new artist. Initial interest is usually very tentative. So if you stir up that interest but wait months to release the album, the majority of these new fans will go cold and move on to something else. Most sales will come soon after interest is peaked.  Waiting months and expecting that people will still be chomping at the bit to purchase will be a mistake, in my opinion. A few weeks, sure... a few months, not so much.

People will go cold before you ask them to buy.

The idea is to create consistent and meaningful content up until the release, whenever that may be. How would they go cold?

For the reasons mentioned above. Attention is fleeting. It's true that you need to build up to something, but once that interest is piqued you need to close the sale. Lists go cold all the time. It's a bit like dating... While it often needs to go slow in the beginning, if you wait too long before the relationship progresses, it usually goes cold as people look to other things that are more immediate and exciting. 

That is because what works when you have $500,000 to spend just doesn’t work when you have $5000 to spend on promotion. 

Can you elaborate a little more on this? Im not following

When you have hundreds of thousands of dollars to spend (like the major labels do), you can create a true tipping point of awareness, where an entire nation is talking about you all at once and real fervor and anticipation is created. You just can't do that on an indie budget. Instead yo create individual bonds with your fans, through your content and email/social media marketing. This is the very big difference that MMM is built around.

You can no longer chart with free for shipping and handling, as far as I know. 

I know you have to sell an album for at least $3.49 for it to be counted towards a chart position. I was going to do a "free for shipping and handling" for $4.95 and divvy that up accordingly so it could qualify as a legitimate sale for charting. Is this approach no longer legal?

To my knowledge this is no longer allowed by Nielsen. They need to actually purchase it for the minimum. It cannot be advertised as free (or less than the minimum). I'll look into this and post a follow up if I learn something different. But to be clear, it's not illegal... It's just not allowed by Nielsen. 

Given what I said above about not being able to chart with free for shipping and handling, if your goal is to chart then I believe your best bet is to build a list using another album (the acoustic album for example), and optimize until you are breaking even or close. Build the list as large as possible and sell to your list with an incentivised offer, all within a short 2 – 4 week window. This is the best way to consistently chart. But you need to build the audience first and know your numbers.

My approach was to start off selling the 6 track EP in the funnel and using that to build my list, however it would be at a loss to start off with, then to release a bunch of singles over the next 6 months. These singles will have interesting stories + content behind them. I have an entire plan laid out for this from Damian Keyes. Each single will also have a music video or video attached to them. Then to go on to the main course and sell the main 10 track album and then a month later to sell the 10 track acoustic album. That said, my concern with this approach is that the ads and squeeze page I would have spent time on tweaking until subscriber costs were low and sales were high for the 6 track EP would actually end up being a completely different audience that would buy my album 6-8 months later because the music is different, but we've already discussed this in past conversations. 

I'm not all that familiar with his strategies, but I don't believe Damien and I teach the same strategies. I think trying to marry the two strategies could be the problem. My model and the goals of my model clash a bit with the approach you are outlining. I would never spend 6 months working singles with no album for sale, unless my goal was streaming revenue, and I am a huge believer in putting sales above streaming, for the average indie artist.

In terms of maximising ROI and minimising risk and leaving all other goals aside, would the best approach rather be optimising my funnel to get the most sales of my main album as soon as possible up front? Obviously I want to sell as many albums as possible so what would the time scale look like if I want to sell say 1000 of my main album to a list of 20 000 subscribers?

I'm not sure I follow that or know how to answer it. My approach is very simple. Build a list, build a relationship with your list, sell to that list, keep selling to that list. Optimize or sell more until profitable. The numbers will slice different for everyone. Some people profit right away, others run many weeks worth f promos before they are profitable.

I think it’s great that you have goals. They are all achievable, but they are also ambitious and it may not be as easy as you think to get there, simply because you are starting from nearly zero. My best advice is to realise that this is a long game, and if you stay the course of growing your audience and monetizing your relationship with your audience, you really can’t fail.

I realise this takes time and is a long game which is another reason why I was only planning on releasing the album in October next year. I thought the single releases would be little tantalisers for the whole album and would also buy me time to build my list to 20 000 while also still showing my subscribers that "Hey look look what is coming. This is the type of music you're looking for and you will get it if you stick around". They would literally be getting a free download almost every month next year attached to a story or content piece. Isn't that valuable to them? I could be way off as content creation is my achilles heel.

  

I addressed this last point above. Content creation is an important part of my approach. It's all about building that bond so that people care about your message and you as a person. That doesn't mean that you need to write long blog posts, or anything complicated. You just need to find your way of entertaining your audience, and keep them engaged. Engagement in between releases is really a huge part of the job of the modern musician.

Jean Morrison said
I've combined some of your responses together as my response applies to both.

Yes, if the album is available. But in my experience you are overestimating the level of interest you will create as a new artist. Initial interest is usually very tentative. So if you stir up that interest but wait months to release the album, the majority of these new fans will go cold and move on to something else. Most sales will come soon after interest is peaked.  Waiting months and expecting that people will still be chomping at the bit to purchase will be a mistake, in my opinion. A few weeks, sure… a few months, not so much.

I’m not all that familiar with his strategies, but I don’t believe Damien and I teach the same strategies. I think trying to marry the two strategies could be the problem. My model and the goals of my model clash a bit with the approach you are outlining. I would never spend 6 months working singles with no album for sale, unless my goal was streaming revenue, and I am a huge believer in putting sales above streaming, for the average indie artist.

 

 

Maybe things have changed since the old days when people had more patience when waiting for artists to release albums. I thought releasing singles consistently could buy me time. 

I should clarify, Damien's approach is also not to release an album so far in the future. It seems his approach would be to rather release 10 singles over 10 months than one 10 track album yet he does advocate selling albums. I see a lot of parallels in both your approaches though especially with the relationship building side of things. I feel adopting both strategies can work well together if you have the time and ability to create a lot of content, music and stuff to sell. As I'll be doing this almost on a full time basis next year I do feel this is realistic given the automated nature of facebook advertising and the time and money I'll have available. 

It sounds like we believe in a similar approach to tribe building, but our focus is on very different ways of monetizing. I am not anti-streaming, but I am strongly in favour of a sales driven model. It's harder to sell that solution to musicians who all want to just do what everyone else is doing, but sooner or later 99% of artists come to MMM because they have experienced how dismal the returns can be from streaming, as an indie artists. There are many exceptions but I maintain that if you take 100 artists and send them down a sales driven path you will see much more income generated than you will with a streaming approach. That's how I approach things, and the reality is that while you can do both things, you need to window your streaming releases and you can't give sales and streaming equal priority.

To my knowledge this is no longer allowed by Nielsen. They need to actually purchase it for the minimum. It cannot be advertised as free (or less than the minimum). I’ll look into this and post a follow up if I learn something different. But to be clear, it’s not illegal… It’s just not allowed by Nielsen. 

Awesome thanks for clearing this up for me.

 

Jean said:

In terms of maximising ROI and minimising risk and leaving all other goals aside, would the best approach rather be optimising my funnel to get the most sales of my main album as soon as possible up front? Obviously I want to sell as many albums as possible so what would the time scale look like if I want to sell say 1000 of my main album to a list of 20 000 subscribers

John said:

I’m not sure I follow that or know how to answer it. My approach is very simple. Build a list, build a relationship with your list, sell to that list, keep selling to that list. Optimize or sell more until profitable. The numbers will slice different for everyone. Some people profit right away, others run many weeks worth f promos before they are profitable.

I should probably rephrase the question. Lets forget everything we've discussed for a second. If your goal was to sell 1000 copies of your new album and to profit but all you had right now was a 6 track EP and a 10 track acoustic version of that new album, what would your calendar and strategy look like to achieve that goal? I understand my first priority is to get the metrics right first like subscriber costs etc but assuming all that is covered and ignoring the nuances. My apologies for the in depth inquisition, it's just that I literally need to illustrate a strategy to my investors before they will part with a single ad dollar. I cant move forward without one.

  

It really depends on your financial situation and how much you were comfortable risking.

My approach would be to set aside a smaller amount of money (a few hundred dollars, say), and set up a funnel for the EP. I would do all I could to optimize that funnel. The goal initially would be to get some base conversion stats so I could do some projections. You will almost certainly lose money selling just one EP, but you will have a sense of how much it will cost you to build an audience large enough to achieve your goals. To sell 1000 copies you will likely need a list of around 10,000 or more. You will know more once you get some conversion data. Once you have that data you can more accurately estimate how large of a list you will need, how much it will cost you (after EP sales) to build the list, and how much you can expect to make. The realities might not work out exactly as you project, but you should have a solid estimate and can proceed with a decent degree of confidence in the likely outcome of the album release.

I would still release some music to the streaming platforms, but I would limit it to the singles, and I would not rely on streaming activity to grow my fan base. This can happen, but it's harder to control. Instead, I would rely on my fan base to grow my streaming revenue. The artist discovery benefits are certainly there, but I view them as a bonus more than a reliable way to make a living. However, the hope is that sooner or later one of your tracks takes off organically, and you get the additional boon to your career. This is more akin to the old days of getting lucky and having a hit at radio, which is the exact thing I was trying to move away from when I started MMM in 2009. And here we are going through the same process with streaming.

Make sense?